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Theresa May will need a demonstration of European solidarity in standing up to Vladimir Putin
Theresa May will need a demonstration of European solidarity in standing up to Vladimir Putin
When Vladimir Putin was asked recently what historical event he would change if he had the power, he said he would undo the collapse of the Soviet Union. This was not a surprising answer, but it was a timely reminder of what motivates Kremlin policy. Putinism embodies the feeling that Russia was robbed of its wealth and superpower status. The internal failings and atrocities of the Soviet system are of little consequence in this account of history. The Russian president’s project is the reversal, at any cost, of a humiliating defeat by the west.
The attempted murder of Sergei Skripal, a former Russian spy who worked for MI6, and the credible suspicion of Kremlin responsibility, must be seen in this context. The use of a sophisticated nerve agent points to an assassination attempt by a government actor. Moscow attacks such talk as “an anti-Russian campaign”. But commentary on Russian state television observed that “traitors to the motherland” are not safe on UK soil, alluding to the “strange deaths” of other Russians in Britain in recent years, not just the 2006 poisoning of Alexander Litvinenko.
If confirmed as a Russian action, the use of a chemical weapon on British soil would be an act of extreme hostility, suggesting Mr Putin is seeking to demonstrate a capacity to project aggressive power unimpeded around the globe. A similar message was conveyed by the Russian president’s recent speech boasting of new “invincible” nuclear missiles. Some of this is for domestic consumption. He will win the presidential election on 18 March: no other outcome is permitted. But he still likes to burnish his strongman credentials. And repressive regimes must always be advertising their ruthlessness to deter public dissent.
The flaw in the neo-Soviet model is that, as with the USSR, it prioritises militarism over modernisation. Nationalist swagger cannot cover up economic stagnation and corruption for ever. That is why Mr Putin hates sanctions imposed after his annexation of Crimea – and why those sanctions are vital. Financial constraint is something Russia cannot ignore. That illustrates also a challenge for Theresa May in responding to the latest affront. Unilateral retaliations targeting Russian commercial interests are inevitable. Russian-backed broadcasting’s function as an engine of malevolent propaganda also needs more scrutiny. But the UK also relies on the solidarity of its allies. In a speech last year, the prime minister accused Russia of actions that “threaten the international order on which we all depend”.
Her point was that the Kremlin campaigns to undermine the institutions and rules by which democracies mediate their relations. Mr Putin would prefer a zero-sum “great game” approach where might is right. Sadly, the current US president has instincts closer to Mr Putin on that front, even before their closeness in other regards is taken into account. Donald Trump’s caprice is not Mrs May’s fault. But she is in charge of Brexit – a pointless hindrance to coordination with fellow European democracies. She states often that UK exit from the EU signals no reduction in commitment to European security. It is sad that this even needs saying.
Mr Putin is not as powerful as he looks. Russia has developed a capacity to sow discord abroad, but the western alliance has the nobler record of underpinning stability and spreading prosperity. Restoring that capability relies on solidarity among democracies. Mrs May can and must stand up to Russia’s bullying regime. She must hope also that the UK’s European neighbours are minded to stand with her.
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